Space Weather Modeling

A new sunspot collided with an existing sunspot which built up a highly sheared magnetic configuration. This resulted in a solar flare on December 13, 2006. ||

This movie shows data of the December 13, 2006 flare event seen by SOHO/EIT (left) and Hinode XRT (right). The field-of-view of the Hinode images is marked with the yellow border on SOHO/EIT.This movie shows the same event as that in Hinode's High-Resolution View of the Sun. ||

We open with a view from high above the ecliptic plane, at the space between the Sun (left) and the Earth (within the small rectangular box on the right). In the plane of the Earth's orbit, we show a 'slice' of the Enlil model showing the particle density profile of the solar wind (white to yellow for decreasing particle density). The spiral 'rotating water sprinkler' pattern in the density is the Parker spiral (Wikipedia). The nested grid pattern centered on the Earth, provides a sense of scale to the scene. The smallest grid square in the opening view is 1,000 Earth radii on each side. The scale changes by a factor of ten for each step larger or smaller in size.We zoom down to the Earth as the CME (orange surface) erupts in the direction of the Earth, then move into a position behind the Earth with the Sun visible in the distance.As the particle density enhancement from the CME strikes the Earth, we see the Earth's magnetosphere respond, with the outer, high density surface (red) 'blown away'. This surface location corresponds roughly to the location of the bow shock. The bow shock has not been eliminated, only some of its particles have been depleted, to be carried off in the CME and solar wind. As the densest material of the CME passes (orange surface), plasma from the CME continues to flow by the Earth, stretching the magnetosphere into a long, thin structure behind the Earth.The magnetosphere slowly recovers from the 'impact', and regions that can confine higher particle densities reform - the red surfaces return. But not for long as the rarefaction (Wikipedia) behind the CME reaches the Earth. This lower density region provides fewer particles to repopulate the magnetosphere and makes it easier for particles confined in the magnetosphere to 'leak' out into the solar wind.For the BATS-R-US model, the isosurface colors correpond to densities of: red=20 AMUs per cubic centimeter, yellow=10.0 AMUs per cubic centimeter, light blue=1.0 AMUs per cubic centimeter, and blue=0.1 AMUs per cubic centimeter. An AMU corresponds to about the mass of a hydrogen atom, so the value roughly corresponds to the number of atoms per cubic centimeter.This visualization is part of a series of visualizations on space weather modeling. ||

We start from a position 'behind' the Earth, looking towards the Sun. From this position we see the orbit of the Moon as well as three of the heliospheric 'sentinels' (see "Sentinels of the Heliosphere"), ACE, SOHO, and Wind patrolling along 'halo orbits' (Wikipedia) around the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point, L1.The CME (orange isosurface) erupts, heading towards the Earth. The density enhancement of the CME is visible in slice of data in the Earth's orbit plane which provides a better sense of when the CME actually reaches the Earth.As the particle density enhancement from the CME strikes the Earth, we see the Earth's magnetosphere respond, with the outer, high density surface (red), 'blown away'. This surface location corresponds roughly to the location of the bow shock. The bow shock has not been eliminated, only some of its particles have been depleted, to be carried off in the CME and solar wind. As the densest material of the CME passes (orange surface), plasma from the CME continues to flow by the Earth, stretching the magnetosphere into a long, thin structure behind the Earth.The magnetosphere slowly recovers from the 'impact', and regions that can confine higher particle densities reform - the red surfaces return. But not for long as the rarefaction behind the CME reaches the Earth. This lower density region provides fewer particles to repopulate the magnetosphere and make it easier for particles confined in the magnetosphere to 'leak' out into the solar wind.For the BATS-R-US model, the isosurface colors are: red=20 AMUs per cubic centimeter, yellow=10.0 AMUs per cubic centimeter, light blue=1.0 AMUs per cubic centimeter, and blue=0.1 AMUs per cubic centimeter. An AMU corresponds to about the mass of a hydrogen atom, the dominant component of the solar wind.This visualization is part of a series of visualizations on space weather modeling. ||

We open with a view from high above the ecliptic plane, at the space between the Sun (left) and the Earth (within the small rectangular box on the right). In the plane of the Earth's orbit, we show a 'slice' of the Enlil model showing the particle density profile of the solar wind (white to yellow for decreasing particle density). The spiral 'rotating water sprinkler' pattern in the density is the Parker spiral (Wikipedia). We zoom down to the Earth as the CME (orange surface) erupts in the direction of the Earth and move into a position above the Earth's orbital plane with the Earth (geospace) environment in view.As the particle density enhancement from the CME strikes the Earth, we see the Earth's magnetosphere respond, with the outer, high density surface (red) 'blown away'. This surface location corresponds roughly to the location of the bow shock. The bow shock has not been eliminated, only some of its particles have been depleted, to be carried off in the CME and solar wind. As the densest material of the CME passes (orange surface), plasma from the CME continues to flow by the Earth, stretching the magnetosphere into a long, thin structure behind the Earth.The magnetosphere slowly recovers from the 'impact', and regions that can confine higher particle densities reform - the red surfaces return. But not for long as the rarefaction (Wikipedia) behind the CME reaches the Earth. This lower density region provides fewer particles to repopulate the magnetosphere and makes it easier for particles confined in the magnetosphere to 'leak' out into the solar wind.For the BATS-R-US model, the isosurface colors are: red=20 AMUs per cubic centimeter, yellow=10.0 AMUs per cubic centimeter, light blue=1.0 AMUs per cubic centimeter, and blue=0.1 AMUs per cubic centimeter. An AMU corresponds to about the mass of a hydrogen atom, the dominant component of the solar wind.This visualization is part of a series of visualizations on space weather modeling. ||

We open with a view from high above the ecliptic plane, at the space between the Sun (left) and the Earth (within the small rectangular box on the right). In the plane of the Earth's orbit, we show a 'slice' of the Enlil model showing the particle density profile of the solar wind (white to yellow for decreasing particle density). The spiral 'rotating water sprinkler' pattern in the density is the Parker spiral (Wikipedia). The CME (orange surface) erupts in the direction of the Earth. The orange surface represents a boundary of common pressure differences, which better identifies sharp transitions in pressure common in shocks fronts. The CME clears out particles in the region behind it, called a rarefaction (Wikipedia), visible in the particle density.This visualization is part of a series of visualizations on space weather modeling. ||

We start with a view of the space between the Sun (left) and the Earth (within the small rectangular box on the right), slightly above the ecliptic plane. In the plane of the Earth's orbit, we show a 'slice' of the particle density profile of the solar wind (white to yellow for decreasing particle density). Perpendicular to this, we have another 'slice' of particle density from the Enlil model. The Enlil model extends to 60 degrees above and below the solar equator, and beyond 20 solar radii from the Sun. This gap creates the 'hourglass' empty region around the Sun.The CME (orange surface) erupts in the direction of the Earth. The orange surface represents a boundary of common pressure differences, which better identifies sharp transitions in pressure common in shocks fronts. The CME clears out particles in the region behind it, called a rarefaction (Wikipedia), visible in the particle density.This visualization is part of a series of visualizations on space weather modeling. ||

Energetic events on the Sun have impacts throughout the Solar System. This visualization, developed for the Dynamic Earth dome show, utilizes data from space weather models based on a real coronal mass ejection (CME) event from mid-December 2003. Particles are used to represent the flow of solar material from the Sun around the Earth. It is important to note that the flowing material of the CME are actually ions and electrons far too small to see. This visualization tries to represent the motions of these tiny particles in a form large enough for us to see. We open with a close-up view of the Earth, the particles representing the solar wind streaming around the Earth due to extended influence of the Earth's magnetic field. We pull out from the Earth and move so that we see the Sun in the distance. The enormous density enhancement in the solar wind is the coronal mass ejection. As the CME reaches the Earth, we see how effective the Earth's magnetic field is at diverting the solar material around the Earth. As the CME passes, we move earthward, and reveal the field lines representing the Earth's magnetic field, emanating from the magnetic poles and blown behind the Earth due to the influence of the solar wind. For simplicity, we have represented the Earth's magnetic field as unchanging, but it is actually very dynamic in its response to a CME or other change in the solar wind. ||

As the CMEs and SIRs move through the solar system, we include graphs of particle fluxes measured at Earth, Mars, and STEREO-A. || SEPsAtMars.topfixed.UHDframes.clockSlate_HAE.UHD3840.01000_print.jpg (1024x576) [100.6 KB] || SEPsAtMars.topfixed.UHDframes.clockSlate_HAE.UHD3840.01000_thm.png (80x40) [6.5 KB] || SEPsAtMars.topfixed.UHDframes.clockSlate_HAE.UHD3840.01000_searchweb.png (320x180) [87.5 KB] || SEPsAtMars.topfixed_HAE.HD1080i_p30.mp4 (1920x1080) [19.4 MB] || 1920x1080_16x9_30p (1920x1080) [128.0 KB] || SEPsAtMars.topfixed_HAE.HD1080i_p30.webm (1920x1080) [3.0 MB] || SEPsAtMars.topfixed_HAE_2160p30.mp4 (3840x2160) [61.6 MB] || 3840x2160_16x9_30p (3840x2160) [128.0 KB] ||

Simulations & visualizations of some of the big solar events of Solar Cycle 24. These visualizations were developed to present a more public-friendly
view in a way that the major events of space weather, such as coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) are more obvious even to the untrained observer.
We use a fairly basic technique or 'trick' of using the three image
color channels, red, green, and blue, to present different variables
computed in the model run. The visual color-bars are also on the
animation page. In this case, red represents temperature (kind of obvious choice) so
redder is hotter plasma. Green represents density of the plasma. Blue
is a pressure gradient, or change in pressure over distance. More blue
means a stronger shock wave moving through the plasma, which is more a
characteristic of a CME. By combining the three color channels, intense
values of these variables can show up as distinct colors. For example,
a hot, dense shock combines red, green, and blue to form white. But you
could also have a lower density hot shock combining red and blue to make
magenta (or purple/violet). The major visible feature is the 'Parker spiral'. As the solar wind
flows out from the sun, the sun is rotating. Density enhancements
(green in the visualization) in the wind get propagated outward to make
this spiral shape - not too different from the spiral pattern created by
a spinning lawn sprinkler. Coronal mass ejections get imprinted on this
pattern.

Cropped view of the Enlil model from early 2015 to just after the New Horizons flyby of Pluto. || NewHorizons2015_40AU.NoSTEREO_1080p30.01000_print.jpg (1024x576) [72.7 KB] || NewHorizons2015_40AU.NoSTEREO_1080p30.mp4 (1920x1080) [27.9 MB] || NewHorizons2015_40AU.NoSTEREO_1080p30.webm (1920x1080) [6.6 MB] || NewHorizons2015_40AU.NoSTEREO.3840x2160_p30.mp4 (3840x2160) [82.5 MB] || 5760x3240_16x9_30p (5760x3240) [128.0 KB] || NoSTEREO (3840x2160) [128.0 KB] || space-weather-to-the-edge-of-the-solar-system-hd1080-movie.hwshow [336 bytes] ||