[weatherman] Over Hagerstown and Martinsburg tomorrow.
[Narrator] Weather forecasters use them to create
the nightly weather report. Airline pilots use them to learn how to fly
planes experts. Experts use them in virtually every industry and discipline. Their
computer models. At NASA, scientists use computer models to enhance our
understanding of the Earth, the solar system and the universe. NASA
satellites orbiting the Earth relay immense amounts of data back to
scientists on the ground. Who can then enter that data into computer model
simulations. [Rosenzweig] We have then equations and then we have computer code which solves
those equations on a day-to-day basis. [Narrator] NASA is the source for most of the
research satellite observations of the atmosphere land and oceans.
[Webster] So the NASA scientists will look at the observational data and make theoretical
projections of what a model might look like. And they will build a numerical
model based on the data and then run that on our computers and then compare
that to reality. [Narrator] With rapid increases in computer technology. Models are becoming
evermore powerful and sophisticated. Allowing us to simulate our complex
environment in greater detail. NASA uses a variety of weather models, such as the
Goddard Earth observing system model or GEOS-5. It creates an extraordinarily
high-resolution realistic looking view of our atmosphere.
These Geos-5 simulations showcase the model's ability to capture fine
scale cloud features worldwide. Like the swirling clouds in the Atlantic Ocean
off the coast of North America. The goal of weather models is to give the most
accurate prediction of weather over the next week to ten days. In 2005 when
Hurricane Katrina formed over the Atlantic Ocean, scientists wanted to
understand the storm. How intense was it? What was its size and structure? And what
would be its final path. NASA satellites continuously monitored many aspects of
the storm from wind speed, rainfall and sea surface temperature to the storms
three-dimensional structure. To get a more complete picture of the storm and
predict its evolution. Scientists entered the data into a computer model. Then
high-powered supercomputers capable of trillions of calculations per second
crunched the numbers. This process is called data assimilation. Data
assimilation is a two-step cycle that repeats itself whenever new data becomes
available. In the first step, the model runs forward in time to provide an
estimate of the atmosphere. In the second step, this estimate gets corrected using
observations. Then the cycle begins again each step building upon the last and
accumulating the information from satellite and ground observations.
Weather models are updated every six hours to include the most current
observations for the next forecast. This approach prevents the model from
straying too far from reality and acts as a checksum balance system to achieve
the most accurate forecast.
While weather models for the conditions for up to 10 days. Climate models predict
trends over much longer periods of time. [Webster] The climate models that are run at the
NCCS are numerical expressions of the various processes that make up the
climate. This includes things like land surface, movement of water in the ocean
and movement of air in the atmosphere. [Narrator] Just as in weather prediction, data
simulation as a way of bringing all the observations of the Earth together to
provide an analysis of our climate. One example of this technique is MERRA the
Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application. MERRA
incorporates data from the entire satellite record over 30 years of data.
Its results are data encyclopedia that can be used for research and analysis.
MERRA can help meteorologists understand the variations associated with specific
weather events in the past. While MERRA gives us a climate picture across
decades. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies or GISS can extend that
view across centuries. GISS models have already unraveled average temperature
trends over 200 years. New GISS simulations will cover the last 1,000 years to
verify the models accuracy. They'll also look forward predicting climate trends
to the end of the 21st century. With each satellite launched we gain millions of
measurements that tell us more about our planet. Having so much more data will
require increases in computing power to synthesize this information into
meaningful representations of the climate system as a whole. [Webster] At Goddard
Space Flight Center we have a tremendous amount of observational data which is
captured by our satellites. We have probably the largest collection of Earth
Scientists anywhere in the world. And we have this new state-of-the-art computing
center. So the combination of the scientists, the data and the computing
puts us in a unique position to enable advances in weather climate research.
[music]