Predicting Sea Ice Minimums

Narration: Katy Mersmann

Transcript:

1

00:00:00,030 --> 00:00:04,070

It’s always a challenge to predict each year how much Arctic sea ice

2

00:00:04,070 --> 00:00:08,140

coverage might change with the seasons. Now we have a new tool

3

00:00:08,140 --> 00:00:12,150

to make the summer forecast for sea ice minimums just a little bit better.

4

00:00:12,150 --> 00:00:16,190

NASA scientists can make a reasonable estimate of September’s

5

00:00:16,190 --> 00:00:20,290

sea ice extent as early as this March, with the predictions getting more reliable everyday.

6

00:00:20,290 --> 00:00:24,410

This new forecasting model

7

00:00:24,410 --> 00:00:28,440

uses real-time NASA satellite data of Arctic sea ice melt,

8

00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,560

so the predictions improve through late spring and early summer

9

00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:36,600

as they incorporate more information about the state of sea ice melt

10

00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:40,630

and distribution of open water across the Arctic Ocean.

11

00:00:40,630 --> 00:00:44,690

Although most forecast models focus on predicting the extent of sea ice

12

00:00:44,690 --> 00:00:48,730

across the entire Arctic, this model also produces reliable forecasts

13

00:00:48,730 --> 00:00:52,810

of sea ice in specific regions, like the seas north of Alaska,

14

00:00:52,810 --> 00:00:57,000

crucial information for people living in and moving through the region.

15

00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:01,070

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in regulating the planet’s climate,

16

00:01:01,070 --> 00:01:05,150

so predictions of sea ice extent can help us better

17

00:01:05,150 --> 00:01:09,310

understand how global temperatures might change.

18

00:01:09,310 --> 00:01:13,370

Scientists can continue to train the model based on historical observations.

19

00:01:13,370 --> 00:01:17,490

In just a few weeks, the model will begin producing forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent

20

00:01:17,490 --> 00:01:21,580

for the coming September and will continue making improvements,

21

00:01:21,580 --> 00:01:25,600

as the annual sea ice minimum extent gets closer.