>> HI, EVERYONE ON FACEBOOK.
I'M JOY NG AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US
WE'RE HERE AT NASA'S GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
IN GREENBELT, MARYLAND
AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE
2017 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
NOAA ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY THAT
THIS SEASON WAS THE SEVENTH
MOST ACTIVE SEASON IN
RECORDED HISTORY.
SO I WITH THE NASA EXPERTS
THAT WILL EXPLAIN WHY THIS
YEAR WAS ACTIVE.
WELL, LET'S SPEAK TO EXPERTS
THAT CREATED MAPS THAT
HELPED FIRST RESPONDERS ON THE GROUND.
WE'LL BE TAKING YOUR QUESTIONS
THROUGHOUT THE SHOW.
SO IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS,
PUT THEM IN THE COMMENT
SECTION AND WE'LL GET TO
THEM THROUGHOUT THE SHOW.
SO,I AM HERE WITH A COUPLE OF NASA EXPERTS
HERE IS AMBER EMORY AND SCOTT BRAUN
SO, SCOTT, CAN YOU TELL US
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOAA'S
AND NASA'S ROLE IN HURRICANE RESEARCH?
>> SURE, NOAA'S ROLE TYPICALLY
IS MORE OPERATIONALLY FOCUSED.
YOU KNOW, THEY ARE
GENERATING THE FORECAST AND
THE WARNINGS FOR HURRICANES
AND DOING A LOT OF RESEARCH
THAT IS GEARED TOWARD
IMPROVING THE FORECAST.
NOW NASA ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE OF THE BASIC
RESEARCH INSTITUTION.
WE ARE TRYING TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE VANTAGE
POINT OF SPACE USING
SATELLITES TO BETTER
UNDERSTAND THE EARTH'S SYSTEM.
FOR EXAMPLE WE USING OUR WE USE OUR
GLOBAL PRESIPTAION MEASUREMENT SYSTEM
TO LOOK AT PRECIPITATION AND HOW
THAT RELATES TO FORMATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANES.
>> SO CAN YOU GIVE US A RECAP
OF WHAT WE SAW THIS YEAR?
>> SURE.
2017 SET A LOT OF RECORDS.
WE HAD TEN HURRICANES,
ALL IN A ROW THIS YEAR.
THAT'S THE LONGEST STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE HURRICANES CERTAINLY
IN THE SATELLITE RECORD AND EVEN
GOING BACK TO THE LATE 1800'S.
WE HAD, EXCUSE ME, HURRICANE
HARVEY, WHICH WAS THE FIRST
LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE
SINCE HURRICANE WILMA IN
2005.
IT GENERATED FIVE FEET OF
RAINFALL IN THE HOUSTON
AREA.
FOR THE FIRST TIME ON
RECORD.
WE HAD TWO LAND FALLING
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANES IN THE
UNITED STATES.
HURRICANE IRMA WAS THE
STRONGEST STORM IN THE
ATLANTIC, OUTSIDE OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN.
IT HAD 185 MILES PER HOUR WINDS
FOR OVER 30 HOURS AND
MANDATORY CAN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY FOR THREE DAYS.
AS YOU CAN IMAGINE WITH
SEVERAL MAJOR HURRICANES
MAKING LANDFALL THIS YEAR.
2017 IS GOING TO SET A
RECORD FOR THE AMOUNT OF
DAMAGE THE TOTAL DAMAGE MAY
BE ON THE ORDER
OF $370 BILLION.
>> SO AMBER LET'S BRING YOU BACK
IN.
AS SCOTT MENTIONED,
STORM AFTER STORM
WE WERE BREAKING RECORDS.
WHAT MADE THIS YEAR SUCH A
RECORD-BREAKING YEAR?
>> THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION,
JOY.
THREE OF THE THINGS THAT
MADE FOR A REALLY STRONG
2017 SEASON, FIRST, WE HAD
BY JUNE 1st.
IT WAS IDENTIFIED WE WERE IN
EL NINO NEUTRAL CONDITION,
WHICH WE, WHICH WEAKENED
WIND SHEER, SO THOSE TWO
ITEMS, PLUS THE FACT WE HAD
WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
THOSE THREE INGREDIENT
REALLY HELPED MAKE A STRONG
HURRICANE SEASON THIS YEAR.
SO NOAA ACTUALLY PREDICTED
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SEASON.
IT IS IT BECAUSE THEY COULD
PREDICT THESE CONDITIONS?
>> THAT IS RIGHT.
SO BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACT AS A FUEL
FOR HURRICANES
WHAT WE CAN SEE.
AS YOU CAN HE HERE
IN THIS IMAGE
THESE WARM YELLOW AND RED COLORS
INDICATE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS
TO UP TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS
SOME OF THESE AREAS HERE
LIKE ABOVE CUBA WHERE IRMA
WAS COMING IN, REALLY,
REALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEARLY 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
WE CAN SEE THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HIGH RESOLUTION
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THAT IS HOW WE PREDICT
AN EL NINO SEASON.
>> THANK YOU.
SO FOR THOSE JUST JOINING US,
I'M JOY NG AND WE ARE AT NASA'S
GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
IN GREENBELT, MARYLAND
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE
2017 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON.
SO LET'S GO TO EACH STORM
IN DEPTH.
WILL LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTAL
QUESTIONS THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
HURRICANE RESEARCH.
SO IF WE BRING BACK SCOTT.
SO HURRICANE HARVEY HAD ONE
OF THE -- HAD THE BIGGEST
RAINFALL EVENT THAT HIT THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
IS THIS SOMETHING WE COULD
HAVE PREDICTED?
IT TURNS OUT THAT HARVEY WAS
WELL PREDICTED BY THE COMPUTER
FORECAST MODELS, DAYS IN ADVANCE
I REMEMBER WATCHING THIS IN
REAL TIME AND SEEING THE MODELS
PROJECTING THREE TO FOUR FEET
OF RAINFALL.
MANY WERE AMAZED BY THAT.
IT TURNED OUT TO BE TRUE.
IN ADDITION, YOU KNOW,
NASA HERE, GLOBAL PRECIPITATION
MEASUREMENT MISSION OR GPM
WE WERE ABLE TO WATCH THE
ACCUMULATION OF THAT
RAINFALL IN REAL TIME.
SO GPM IS A JOINT NASA-JAPANESE SPACE
SPACE AGENCY SATELLITE
THAT GIVES VERY HIGH DETAILED INFORMATION,
SPATIAL INFORMATION, ON THE
STRUCTURE OF HURRICANES.
IT SHOWS YOU THE RAIN BAND
STRUCTURE, THE EYEWALL
STRUCTURES, NOT ONLY IN TERMS
OF HORIZONTAL BUT THE
VERTICAL AS WELL.
WE CAN USE THAT INFORMATION,
GPM IS THE LINCHPIN
OF A CONSTELLATION OF INTERNATIONAL
SATELLITES, AND THAT WE CAN
COMBINE TO PRODUCE HIGH
RESOLUTIONS GLOBAL MAPS OF
RAINFALL.
WHAT YOU ARE SEEING HERE IS
AN ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL
OVER THE HISTORY OF HARVEY,
AS IT WAS MOVING IN TO TEXAS
THEN SORT OF MEANDERING TO
THE HOUSTON AREA.
YOU CAN SEE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT FORS HERE IN
THE HOUSTON AREA.
NOW, IN TEXAS, THE SATELLITE
RAIN FALL DATA IS NOT AS
CRITICAL, BECAUSE
WE HAVE GROUND BASE RADARS
THAT CAN MEASURE
PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF AREAS
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WE DON'T
HAVE SURFACE RADARS.
FOR EXAMPLE.
IN HURRICANE MARIA, WHICH
HIT PUERTO RICO VERY HARD.
EARLY IN THE STORM AND THE
LIFE CYCLE.
THE RADAR ON PUERTO RICO WAS
KNOCKED OUT.
THE ONLY WAY WE CAN TRACK
THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE MARIA IS THROUGH
THE GPM SATELLITE ANALYSIS.
>> SO IF YOU HAVE ANY
QUESTIONS, PUT THEM IN THE
COMMENT SECTION AND WE'LL GET TO
THEM THROUGHOUT THE SHOW.
I HAVE A QUICK QUESTION HERE
FROM ALLEN.
HE ASKS WHAT EFFECTS HOW
MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS IN A
STORM.
>> WELL, ACTUALLY, YOU KNOW,
IT IS SIMPLE.
IT'S HOW HEAVY IT IS
RAINING?
HOW QUICKLY OR SLOWLY THE
STORM IS MOVING?
NOW, THE MORE INTENSE
THE STORM, USUALLY THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, WITH
HARVEY BEING A CATEGORY FOUR
INTENSITY STORM AT
LANDFALL.
THE RAINFALL RATE NEAR THE
EYEWALL WERE VERY HEAVY.
ALSO, IT HAD MAJOR RAIN
BANDS OUT TO THE EAST THAT AFFECTED
HUSTON THAT WERE DUMPING A
LOT OF RAIN.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH HARVEY
WAS REALLY THE FACT IT MOVED
IN TO THE GULF AND INTO
TEXAS VERY SLOWLY AND
MEANDERED THERE AND DRIFTED
BACK OUT, SO IT BASICALLY
SAT OVER THE HOUSTON AREA
STREAMING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL
DAYS JUST LEADING TO A HUGE
ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL.
>> THANK YOU.
SO LET'S MOVE ON TO
HURRICANE IRMA.
AMBER, IF YOU CAN HELP ME
WITH THIS.
HURRICANE IRMA WAS A
CATEGORY 5 STORM FOR THE
LONGEST TIME ON RECORD, SO
WE HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT
HURRICANE RESEARCH.
WHAT MAKES A STORM SO
POWERFUL AND SUSTAINED FOR
THAT LONG PERIOD OF TIME?
>> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION,
JOY.
IF WE LOOK HERE AGAIN AT THE
SATELLITE IMAGE, THE BIG
THINGS WITH HURRICANES, THEIR
FUEL IS COMING FROM THE
OCEAN, SO YOU CAN SEE HERE,
AS IRMA COMES IN TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STARTS
TO APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND
HITTING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND CUBA.
IT STARTS TAPPING AND REALLY
WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THERE WAS
ALSO LOTS OF MOISTURE WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE AND AS WELL,
THERE IS LOW OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION, THERE WAS REALLY LOW
WIND SHEER, SO SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FUEL
THE HURRICANE AND THE
ABSENCE OF WIND SHEER WHICH
TILTS THAT VORTEX AND THAT WAS
ABSENT SO THAT REALLY HELPS
IRMA TO TAKE FORMATION AND
THEN THERE WERE NO OPPOSING
FORCES THAT WOULD KEEP IT FROM
STRENGTHENING AND
MAINTAINING THE CATEGORY 5
INTENSITY FOR THREE DAYS.
THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME WE
SAW THAT,
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
I GUESSING GOING BACK TO
BASICS.
WE GOT A QUESTION HERE
FROM LINDA.
WHAT IS THE MAIN REASON FOR
HURRICANES TO APPEAR?
>> OH, THAT IS A GOOD
QUESTION.
SO GENERALLY WHAT WE SEE
WITH HURRICANES.
WE HAVE CLIMATALOGICAL
SEASON, SO AGAIN, KIND OF
TALKS ABOUT WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
A LOT OF TIMES WE GET CAPE
VERDE STORMS AND THIS IS THE
CAPE VERDE WHICH IS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND
THERE ARE THESE AFRICAN
EASTERNLY WAVES AND THEY COME
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
THEY START ALL THE WHICH
OVER IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT OF AFTER
CAN AND CONTINUALLY STREAM
LONG.
YOU CAN SEE HERE.
THIS IS GREAT IMAGE.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE STORMS
THAT DEN RATE HERE SO YOU
HAVE THE THERMODYNAMIC
STRUCTURES FOR LOTS OF
HUMIDITY, AND MOISTURE
WITHIN, WITHIN THE AIR AND,
AND ONE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORCE THE FUEL
AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE
WAVES TO FORM THOSE
HURRICANES.
OK.
THANK YOU.
>> I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION
HERE FROM JAMIE.
WERE HURRICANES WORST THIS YEAR
BECAUSE OF GLOBAL
WARMING?
>> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.
ONE WE GET QUITE A LOT
WE CAN NEVER SAY FROM ONE
SPECIFIC STORM WHETHER IT IS
CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE OR
NOT.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE DO KNOW
THAT WITHOUT QUESTION IS
THAT OUR OCEANS AND OUR
ATMOSPHERE ARE WARMING.
AND SO AS WE GO TO THE
FUTURE, WHEN WE ARE DEALING
WITH A WARMER CLIMATE, WE
CAN EXPECT FOR HURRICANES TO
BE STRONGER POTENTIALLY INTO
THE FUTURE.
THAT IS SOMETHING WE ARE
WATCHING CLOSELY.
>> THANK YOU.
>> SO ANOTHER MAJOR
HURRICANE THAT HAPPENED THIS
YEAR WAS HURRICANE MARIA.
IT DEVELOPED FROM A CATEGORY
1 TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN
LESS THAN 18 HOURS AND
SCIENTIST CALL THIS PROCESS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
SCOTT, CAN YOU TELL US WHAT
IS RAPID INTENSIFICATION?
>> RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
BASICALLY WHEN YOU GET A
STORM THAT UNDERGOES A WIND
SPEED INCREASE OF 35 MILES
PER HOUR AND A 24-HOUR
PERIOD AND MARIA IS A GREAT
EXAMPLE OF THIS.
IT WENT FROM 80 MILES PER
HOUR TO 160 MILES PER HOUR
IN JUST 24 HOURS.
IT IS THE DOUBLING OF THE
WIND SPEEDS.
THAT IS WHY ITS WITH A
DEVASTATING STORM.
NOW, IN TERMS OF BEING ABLE
TO PREDICT THESE THINGS.
IT IS STILL A MAJOR CHANGE.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS WE
USE TO FORECAST THE EVENTS
STILL DON'T DO A VERY GOOD JOB
OF CAPTURING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND THE
TIMING OF.
THE BEST MODELS ARE ACTUALLY
STATISTICAL MODELS THAT TAKE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE LARGE
SCALE ENVIRONMENT OR ABOUT
WHAT IS GOING ON INSIDE OF
THE STORMS AND RELATING THAT
TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN
INDIVIDUAL STORM RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING SO IT MAY
PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE
ENVIRONMENT SUCH AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WHICH CAUSES THE WIND
SHEER THAT HAS A NEGATIVE
EFFECT ON STORMS, AND EVEN
THE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OR IT MAY LOOK
AT CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
STRUCTURE AND THAT IS WHERE,
YOU KNOW, YOU GOT ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SORT OF SHIFTED TO ONE SIDE
OF THE CENTER IN THE
EYEWALL.
THAT IS A GOOD INDICATION
THAT THERE ARE STRONG WINDS
OF UPPER LEVEL THAT IS
PUSHING THE COVECTION TO THAT SIDE.
THAT TENDS TO LEAD TO A LOW
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF YOU
GOT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SURROUNDING THE TIRE EYE.
THAT MEANS THE WINDS ARE
FAVORABLE AND MUCH HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
>> THANK YOU.
>> SO FOR THOSE OF YOU JUST
JOINING US.
WE ARE AT NASA GODDARD SPACE
FLIGHT CENTER IN MARYLAND AND
TALKING ABOUT THE 2017
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
SCOTT, YOU JUST MENTIONED
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SHOW
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
WHY SO WHY IS IT HARD TO
PREDICT?
>> WELL, I LIKE TO START BY
SAYING THE TRACK FORECAST
HAS GOTTEN EASIER BECAUSE WE
HAD SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
IN MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS
BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM
IS DETERMINED BY THE LARGE
SCALE STEERING FLOW.
THE PROBLEM WITH INTENSITY
IS IT DEPENDS ON MOTIONS
FROM THE SAME LARGE SCALE
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
SCALE OF INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME MAY
ARGUE TO WHAT IS GOING ON
WITH INDIVIDUAL CLOUD DROPS
THEMSELVES AND SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES
TEND TO BE MORE CHAOTIC AND
TEND TO BE HARDER TO
PREDICT.
THAT JUST MAKES FOR A MUCH
BIGGER CHALLENGE IN
INTENSITY.
>> THANKS.
SO IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS
PLEASE PUT THEM IN THE
COMMENT SECTION AND GET TO
THEM THROUGHOUT THE SHOW.
WE HAVE ONE QUESTION FROM
THE PUBLIC FROM JOHN.
WHAT MAKES RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SO
DANGEROUS?
>> WELL, THE BIGGEST DANGER
ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID IN
CONTINUESFICATION WHEN IT OH
COARSE CLOSE TO LAND.
OBVIOUSLY CLOSE TO LAND OR
ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL.
DON'T HAVE A LOT OF TIME TO
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF THE STORM
IS GOING A CATEGORY 1 TO A
CATEGORY 4 STORM IN 24 HOURS
IT REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THAT THE PUBLIC AND THE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE PEOPLE
HAVE IN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
TO EVACUATION PLANS OR TO
EMERGENCY, OR DISASTER
RECOVERY AND RESPONSE.
SO THAT IS THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS JUST HOW MUCH
TIME YOU HAVE TO REACT TO IT
AND GET OUT OF HARM'S WAY IF
IT IS MAKING LANDFALL IN
YOUR AREA.
>> OK.
THANK YOU.
>> SURE.
>> SO LET'S BRING BACK
AMBER.
AS SCOTT MENTIONED, IT IS
ONE OF THE HARDEST THINGS TO
PREDICT.
AND THERE ALSO OTHER
PROCESSES THAT WE'RE STILL TRYING TO BETTER UNDERSTAND.
SO WHAT DO WE DOING TO BETTER UNDERSTAND
THE THINGS WE DON'T KNOW
ABOUT HURRICANES?
>> AGAIN, THAT IS ANOTHER
REALLY GOOD QUESTION.
SO WE HAVE IT A LOT OF
SATELLITES THAT WE USE.
BUT ONE THING YOU MAY NOT
KNOW IS THAT NASA IS
INVOLVED WITH AIRBORNE
SCIENCE, SO AS YOU CAN SEE
FROM THIS IMAGE HERE.
THIS IS IMAGE OF THE GLOBAL,
YOU CAN SEE THE AIRPLANE
THAT IS FLYING DOING A
LAWNMOWER PATTERN OVER THIS
HURRICANE, SO THE GLOBAL
HAWK IS UNMANNED AERIAL
VEHICLE AND THIS PATH
SUMMER, WE WERE FLYING OUT
OF CALIFORNIA AND WE HAD
THREE INSTRUMENTS ONBOARD, A
A RADAR, A RADIOMETER
AND AS YOU CAN SEE, THIS IS
A PLOT OF SOME DATA, FROM OUR DROPSONDES
CAN SHOW YOU, WE HAPPEN TO
HAVE ONE OF THESE HERE.
SO THIS IS A DROPSONDE, WE CAN
LOAD UP TO 90 WITHIN THE
GLOBAL HAWK, THIS IS
ACTUALLY A CROSS SECTION
HERE SO YOU CAN SEE THE IN
INTERIER CURCUIT BOARD AND
THIS DROPSONDE MEASURES
TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
CONDITION SEE UP HERE,
THIS IS THE PARACHUTE FOR
SO THIS IS RELEASED BY THE
AIRPLANE THAT WE HAVE
OPERATORS ON THE GROUND THAT
RELEASE IT.
SO WE ARE COLLECTING DATA
WITHIN THE STORM.
WE CAN FEED THOSE INTO MODELS
TO HELP IMPROVE THEM.
>> OK.
SO I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION
FROM ROB.
SO WHY DO YOU FLY IN THE
PATTERNS?
WHAT IS THE BENEFIT OF
FLYING IN THIS BY THIS SURE,
THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.
SO AS IMAGE GUESS BACK
THROUGH.
WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO DO IS
GET A FULL 3-D CROSS SECTION
OF THE STORM.
SO AS THIS IS FLYING ALONG.
THE FIRST THING WE'RE DOING
IS A LAWNMOWER PATTERN.
THIS IS TO LOOK AT THE
ENVIRONMENT THAT THE
HURRICANE IS FORMING IN AND
THEN, IT WILL START TO DO IS
THROUGH THE CROSS SECTIONS
AND HERE IS THE FIRST ONE.
WE GO OUT.
WE COME BACK.
SO WE ARE FLYING THIS WAY TO
TRY TO GET ALL SECTORS OF
THE STORM BECAUSE AS SCOTT
MENTIONED BEFORE.
SOME OF THE SECTORS OF THE
STORM ARE STRONGER, YOU
KNOW, THAN OTHERS.
OR IF THERE HE IS ANY
DIFFERENCES IN THOSE.
>> OK.
I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION.
SO WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF
FLYING THROUGH HURRICANES
COMPARED TO, BECAUSE WE ARE
ALSO MONITORING STORMS FROM
SPACE, TOO.
WHAT OTHER DIFFERENCES AND
BENEFITS OF THAT?
>> SURE.
AS WE ARE FLYING THE
STORMS.
THE GLOBAL HAWK ACTUALLY
FRIES OF THE STORM, AS WE
TAKE OFF, WE START TO SPIRAL
UP, AND THEN, THEN, AS WE
ARE FLYING ALONG, WE STARTED
ABOUT 55,000 FEET, THEN, AS
WE BURN MORE FUEL.
WE CLAIM UP TO 60,000 FEET.
SO WE'RE FLYING ABOVE.
ALL THE WAY ABOVE THE TOP OF
THE STORM.
THE BEST THING AND FOR THIS
AS WE ARE FLYING.
WE GET INDEPTH HIGH TIME
AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION DATA
AND THAT HELPS TO COMELIMENT
WHAT WE HAVE NORMALLY FROM
WHAT WE SEE WITH SAT TIGHTS
WE TAKE THOSE SNIPPETS OF
TIME WHEN WE CAN FLY HUR
CANES AND WE CAN LOOK THAT
DATA COMPARED TO SATELLITE
WITH OUR AIRBORNE SCIENCES
THAT WE HAVE COLLECTED AND
COMPARED THAT WITH MODELS
THAT IS HOW WE MAKE
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE MODELS
TO HELP THE PUBLIC TO KEEP
PEOPLE SAFE.
>> THANK YOU.
>> FOR THOSE JUST JOINING US
WE ARE AT NASA'S GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
IN GREENBELT, MARYLAND.
AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
THE 2017 HURRICANE SEASON.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS AT
ALL ABOUT HURRICANE SCIENCE
OR ABOUT DISASTER RESPONSE
TO HURRICANES.
PLEASE PUT THEM IN THE
COMMENTS SECTION AND WE'LL
ANSWER THEM THROUGHOUT THE
SHOW.
SO WE FLY THROUGH HURRICANES
TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THEM.
WE HAVE SATELLITES IN SPACE
THAT MONITOR THEM.
BUT NASA HAS HUGE ROLE
IN DISASTER RESPONSE AS
WELL.
AND SO I AM JOINED WITH
MICHAEL GOODMAN WHO IS FROM
THE NASA MARSHALL SPACE
CENTER IN HUNTSVILLE,
ALABAMA.
HE IS ONE OF THE
COORDINATORS FOR NASA'S
DISASTER PROGRAM.
SO, MICHAEL, CAN YOU TELL
US.
WHAT IS NASA'S ROLE IN
DISASTER'S RESPONSE?
>> SURE.
WELL, NAS SASS, WE PROVIDE
OUR SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
AND TOOLS ON THE LOCAL
REGIONAL, NATIONAL, AND
GLOBAL SCALE TO DISASTER
RESPONSE AGENCIES SUCH AS
FEMA AND THE NATIONAL GUARD.
WE ACHIEVE THIS BY
PROVIDING RELEVANT AND
TIMELY DATA THAT IS IN
USABLE AND UNDERSTANDABLE
FORMATS TO THE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT TEAMS AT FEMA.
IN THIS CASE IN
HURRICANE SEASON, WE PROVIDED
FLOOD MAPS FOR HURRICANES
HARVEY, IRMA, AND MARIA.
>> THANK YOU, MICHAEL.
SO YOU MENTIONED FLOODS.
DOES THE DISASTERS PROGRAM DEAL
WITH ANY OTHER NATURAL
DISASTERS?
>> SURE.
WELL THE DISASTERS
APPLICATION PROGRAM PROMOTES
THE USE OF EARTH
OBSERVATIONS FOR OR TO
IMPROVE PREPARATION BEFORE
DISASTERS RESPONSE TO THE
DISASTERS AND IN RECOVER
FROM THE DISASTERS.
SO THERE IS A LARGE SPECTRUM
OF DISASTER THAT INCLUDES
EARTH QUAKES,
IT COULD BE VOLCANOS,
LANDSLIDES, WILDFIRES,
TORNADOES, AND OF COURSE
HURRICANES AND FLOODS.
IN FACT, RIGHT NOW, WE ARE
MONITORING A VOLCANO IN BALI
IN INDONESIA.
THIS VOLCANO IS MOUNT AGUNG
FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO HAS BEEN
SPEWING LARGE AMOUNTS OF ASH
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND, OF
COURSE, THIS IS DANGEROUS
FOR THE INHABITANTS OF BALI
BUT THAT ASH GETS UP IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CAN BE
HAZARDOUS TO AIRLINE TRAFFIC
AND SO WE ARE MONITORING THE DISPERSION
AND THE DOWNWIND FLOW OF
THAT ASH AS IT MOVES OUT
OVER TO THE PACIFIC.
>> THANKS, MICHAEL.
SO ANOTHER NATURAL DISASTER
THAT HAPPENED THIS
YEAR WAS HURRICANE MARIA.
AND ACTUALLY CREATED MAPS
THAT HELP LOCATE WHERE
THE ELECTRICITY WAS LOST DURING THAT EVENT.
SO I AM HERE JOINED WITH
MIGUEL ROMAN, LEADING SCIENTIST
WHO CREATED THOSE MAPS, SO CAN
YOU WALK US THROUGH THESE
MAPS AND HOW THEY HELP?
>> IF YOU WANTED TO DETECT
DAMAGE, ONE OF THE USEFUL
THINGS WE CAN DO FROM SPACE
NOW IS TO MONITOR
THE EARTH AT NIGHT.
WE LOOK AT A LOT OF ENERGY
IN THE STRUCTURES LIKE
STREETLIGHT, COMES FROM CARS
AND OTHER AREA, SO
TRADITIONALLY, FOR A LOT OF
YEARS, THEY HAVE DEVELOPED
THESE, WHERE YOU CAN HAVE A
LOT OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE
STATUS AND WHAT YOU SEE HERE
IS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO
AND HERE IS THE CAPITAL IN
SAN JUAN AND THE METRO
AREA.
THIS IS THE IMMEDIATELY
AFTER MARIA.
WE MADE SUBSTANTIAL
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH A
PROGRAM THAT WE CALL THE
BLACK MARBLE IN HD WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN ENHANCING THE
QUALITIES OF THE OUTAGE MAPS
BY LOOKING AT YOU KNOW THE
ASPECT OF WHAT HAPPENED
BEFORE MARIA AND AFTER MARIA
SO WHAT WE WE SHOW HERE IS
A DIFFERENT SCALE.
WE GO FROM REALLY CORE RESOLUTIONS IMAGES DOWN
ALL THE WAY TO STREET LAMPS THAT MEANS
YOU CAN MONITOR BRIDGES AND
WHETHER THERE IS ANY IMPACT
ON THAT INFASTRUCTURE
CAN MONITOR HOUSES AND
YOU CAN MONITOR HOSPITALS.
>> SO YOU ARE SAYING YOU CAN
ACTUALLY SEE CHANGES IF ONE
STREETLIGHT WAS DOWN IN THIS MAP?
YES
SO IMAGINE INSTEAD OF JUST
USING ONE SATELLITES NOW WE
COMBINE ALL THE NASA SATELLITES
WITH OUR PARTNERS IN
EUROPE AND WE CAN GET NOT JUST
INFORMATION ABOUT LIGHTS BUT
WE CAN GET INFORMATION ABOUT
BUILDING STRUCTURES AND THE
EXTEND OF BUILDINGS AND THE
DAMAGE, THE FLOODS AND BY
COMBINING ALL OF THIS DATA
FOR VERY LONG PERIODS OF
TIME, WE CAN ALSO ASSESS
RECOVERY.
AND SO WHEN YOU SEE BEFORE
MARIA AND AFTER MARIA, YOU
CAN SEE THAT THE LIGHTS ARE
STILL THERE.
THAT GIVES US INFORMATION ABOUT
THOSE WHO HAVE ACCESS TO POWER
GENERATORS, AND WE HOPE THAT
A LOT OF THOSE GENERATORS
ARE HOSPITALS, LOOK THE SAN
PABLO HOSPITAL.
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR FEMA TO GO
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO OTHER PARTS
AND COMMUNICATE.
THIS IS REALLY SUBSTANTIAL
TECHNOLOGY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO THIS
GLOBALLY AROUND THE WORLD
STARTING NEXT YEAR.
WE ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO
LOOK AT IMAGES OF CITIES
AROUND MANY COASTAL AREAS
THAT ARE BEING IMPACTED BY
HURRICANES
AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS.
>> THANK YOU.
SO FOR THOSE JOINING US.
WE ARE AT NASA'S GODDARD
SPACE FLIGHT CENTER AND
TALKING ABOUT THE 2017
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
AND TALKING ABOUT NASA'S
ROLE IN DISASTER RESPONSE AS
WELL.
AND SO IF YOU HAVE ANY
QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT PLEASE
PUT THEM IN THE COMMENT
SECTION AND ANSWER THEM
THROUGHOUT THE SHOW.
WE HAVE A QUESTION HERE FROM
ANDY.
HE ASKED, HOW LONG IT DID
TAKE TO CREATE THIS MAP?
>> WELL, FORTUNATELY, WE
HAVE A LOT OF BIG DATA SYSTEMS HERE
AT NASA
WE HAVE A LOT OF ASSETS THAT WE,
IN SPACE, ALLOW US TO BEEM THAT DATA
DIRECTLY DOWN TO PUERTO RICO
SO INSTEAD OF HAVING TO GO
TO FIBRE OPTICS OFF IN THE POLES
THEN BRINGING THAT DATA FOR FIBRE
WE CAN DIRECTLY BEEM THE DATA
TO THE END USERS IN PUERTO
RICO AND IN THIS CASE, YOU
CAN GET THE DATA DOWN FROM THREE
HOURS ALL THE WAY TO 30
MINUTES AS LONG AS WE HAVE
THE REGIONAL UNDERSTANDING
AND YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO DO
THAT ALL THE WORLD.
BUT WE HAVE BUILT CAPACITY
IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD
WHERE WE CAN COVER UP
TO 93% OF THE SURFACE.
THAT MEANS THAT EVERY CITY
THAT HAS ACCESS TO ANTENNAS
CAN GET ALL THESE MESSUREMENTS
DIRECTLY DOWN TO THE SCALE.
THAT IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF
WE LOSE COMMUNICATIONS
AT LEAST WE CAN BEEM THE SATELLITE
DATA.
>> SO LET ME CLARIFY.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO
CREATE THESE KINDS OF MAPS?
>> ITS VERY IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THE MAPS ARE REALLY
GETTING AT THE INFRASTRUCTURE.
IT ALLOWS US TO
ACCESS DAMAGE AND THE
SOCIAL ARE TAKING PLACE
IMMEDIATELY AFTER DISASTERS.
IT ONE THING TO SEE A FLOOD
AND THE EXTENT OF A FLOOD,
IT'S A DIFFERENT THING TO BE
ABLE TO COMBINE THAT
WITH ADDITIONAL
TECHNOLOGY TO LOOK A DAMAGE.
A LOT OF THINGS WE DO
AS FELLOW AGENCIES
IS TO CUT CHECKS TO PEOPLE WHO HAVE
LOST THEIR HOMES SO WE WANT
TO PROVIDE THAT IN A TIMELY
FASHION AND INSTEAD OF
WAITING 100 DAYS WE WANT TO
CUT THAT DOWN IF POSSIBLE.
PEOPLE CAN RECONSTRUCT AND
GO BACK AND TRACK.
WE HAVE THE SAME IN PUERTO RICO
AND THIS MEANS BEING ABLE TO
PROVIDE THEM WITH THE TOOLS
THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO CREATE
A GRID THAT IS RESILIENT, IS
SAFER AND ALSO SUSTAINABLE.
>> THANK YOU.
>> AND SO NASA HURRICANE
MARIA WAS NOT THE STORM THAT
NASA CREATED MAPS FOR.
NASA ALSO CREATED MAPS FOR
HURRICANE IRMA AND HARVEY,
TOO.
SO LET'S GO BACK TO
MICHAEL.
CAN YOU TELL US HOW
SATELLITE DATA HELPED FIRST
RESPONDERS DURING HURRICANE
HARVEY AND IRMA?
>> SURE.
WELL, NASA USES AND
PROVIDES OUR SATELLITE DATA
AND THAT OF THE
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS WE
PRODUCED HURRICANE IMPACT
MAPS THAT ARE USED BY THE
RESPONSE AGENCIES SUCH AS
FEMA AND THE NATIONAL
GUARD.
OF PARTICULAR INTERESTS
AND USE IS SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR.
OR SAR IMAGERY.
WE OBTAINED THAT DAT FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS
IN THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY
AND THEY HAVE SATELLITE
CALLED THE COPERNICUS SENTINEL ONE MISSION
AND THE JAPANESE.
THEY HAVE ADVANCE LAND
OBSERVANCE SYSTEM.
BOTH OF THESE SATELLITES
HAVE THE SAR IMAGERY OR THE SYNTHETIC
APERATURE RADAR INSTRUMENTS
ONBOARD.
SAR DATA IS PARTICULARLY
USEFUL BECAUSE IT IS ALL
WEATHER.
IT CAN SEE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS.
IT CAN BE USED AT NIGHT.
SO BY COMPARING SAR DATA,
IMAGES, FROM BEFORE THE
EVENT, DURING THE EVENT, AND
THE AFTER OF THE EVENT, WE
CAN PRODUCE CHANGE MAPS,
THAT CAN DETECT THE DAMAGE
THAT OCCURRED FROM THE
FLOODS OR FROM THE WINDS.
SO WE ARE ABLE TOLL DO THIS
AND PRODUCE FLOOD MAPS OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR
HURRICANE HARVEY AND FOR
HURRICANE IRMA IT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA AND
IN CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SO NOW THESE FLOOD MAPS
WE PROVIDE THEM TO FEMA
AND FEMA USES NOT ONLY OUR DATA
FROM THE SATELLITE BUT THAT
FROM THOSE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND FROM DATA FROM
THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
AND COMBINES THE SATELLITE
DATA AND THE MAYBE AIRBORNE
DATA FROM THE CIVIL AIR PATROL
AND FOR SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND CAN PUT IT
INTO THE FEMA, INTO THE
GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION
INFERSTRUCTURE DATABASE BY USING
ALL THESE DATA THEY ARE
ABLE TO THEN TO IDENTIFY
AREAS THAT WERE LIKELY
FLOODED.
THESE COULD BE HOMERS
BUSINESS OR INDUSTRIAL
AREAS.
THANK YOU, MICHAEL.
WE ARE NASA GODDARD SPACE
CENTER IN MARYLAND AND
TALKING ABOUT THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON AND
HOW NASA HELPED FIRST RESPONDER
ON THE GROUND FOR THE
HURRICANES.
PLEASE KEEP THE QUESTIONS
COMING IN.
WELL GET TO THEM THROUGHOUT
THE SHOW.
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU
MICHAEL.
WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF
CREATING THE MAPS COMPARED
TO SURVEYING ON THE
GROUND?
SURE.
A SATELLITE, AS YOU CAN
IMAGINE, IT CAN SEE LARGE
SWATHS OF THE EARTH IN A
VERY SHORT TIME
WE CAN SEE HUNDREDS OF
SQUARE MILES WITHIN A SINGLE
IMAGE.
FOLKS ON THE GROUND
DURING A DISASTER
OR A HURRICANE.
IT IS HARD TO GET AROUND AND
CAN BE QUITE DANGEROUS.
THERE ARE FALLEN TREES AND
ROADS COULD BE WASHED OUT,
DOWNED POWER LINES SHALL SO
IT IS MUCH HARDER TO GET
AROUND AND MAKE THOSE
OBSERVATIONS ON THE GROUND
WHERE AS THE SATELLITE WE SEE MUCH BROADER
AREA.
AND SO THEN, FEMA THEN TAKES
THAT DATA AND ABLE TO THEN
WE USE IT TO PRODUCE
SATELLITE DISASTER MAPS AND
THEN BETTER USED TO FIND THE AREAS
WHERE THE DAMAGE HAS
OCCURRED.
NOW I SHOULD POINT OUT, THAT
THE SATELLITE DATA DOES NOT
REPLACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE
GROUND AND RATHER IT COMPLIMENTS AND
ENHANCE THE DATA SO THE
EMERGENCY MANAGERS GET A
BETTER OVERALL SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS OF THE ENTIRE
AREA.
>> THANK YOU.
SO WHAT IS THE TIMEFRAME
FOR THIS?
HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR
THE MAPS TO BE CREATED TO
ACTUALLY PUT IN THE HANDS OF
FIRST RESPONDERS ON THE
GROUND?
SURE WELL
MOST OF NASA'S SATELLITES
ARE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES.
SO THEY CIRCLE THE GLOBE
FROM POLE TO POLE FROM NORTH
POLE TO THE SOUTH POLE BUT THEM MAY
ONLY SEE AREA OVER THE EARTH
OVER THE UNITED STATES MAYBE
ONCE A DAY.
SO IT MAY, SO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THAT STORM IS OR THE
DISASTER IS, WE MAY ONLY SEE
IT ON ONE DAY AND NOT SEE IT
AGAIN FOR ANOTHER TWO OR
THREE DAYS.
ALSO, IT DEPENDS ON THE TYPE
OF INSTRUMENTS WE ARE
UTILIZING.
I MENTIONED THE SAR DATA YOU CAN SEE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHERE AS
IF WE ARE USING, WE HAVE
OPTICAL WHICH IS VISIBLE AND
INFRARED.
IT CAN NOT SEE THROUGH THE CLOUDS SO
WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THOSE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND THE
HURRICANE SITUATION AND THEN
WE CAN BE OBSERVE WHERE THE
FLOOD EXTENT IS USING THAT
OPTICAL IMAGERY.
NOW ONCE WE DOWNLOAD THE
DATA AND PROCESS IT.
IT IS SHORT TIME.
WE CAN GET THAT DATA OUT AND
TWO TO THREE HOURS TO OUR FOLKS
OUT IN FEMA AND THE NATIONAL
GUARD.
>> THANK YOU, MICHAEL.
AS A REMINDER, IF YOU HAVE
ANY QUESTIONS AT ALL, PUT THEM
IN THE COMMENT SECTION.
WE'LL GET TO THEM.
LET'S BRING EVERYONE BACK TOGETHER
I'VE GOT A FEW QUESTIONS HERE
FROM THE PUBLIC.
SO LAURA ASK,
CAN SCIENTIST TELL
WHAT CAUSES A HURRICANE TO
OCCUR? OR HOW IT OCCURS?
SO WHEN A HURRICANE OCCURS,
CAN YOU SEE WHAT ASPECT THAT
CAUSES IT TO ACT OR TRAVEL
IN A CERTAIN WAY?
WE KIND OF TALKED ABOUT WITH
HURRICANES, THE TWO
THINGS THAT YOU SEE GRAPHS FROM
OUR PARTNERS AT NOAA FROM THE
OPERATIONAL FORCAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THE BIG THINGS ARE WHERE IT
IS GOING TO IMPACT LAND AND
HOW STRONG IT IS GOING TO BE
WHEN IT GETS THERE?
SO LIKE SCOTT SAID, WHEN
LOOKING AT TRACK, IT IS
LIKE, IF YOU THROW A CORK
INTO A STREAM.
YOU KNOW HOW THIS STREAM
BENDS.
SO YOU HAVE A GOOD WAY OF
KIND OF UNDERSTANDING WHERE
IT IS GOING TO MAKE LANDFALL
BUT IN TERMS OF THINGS WITH
RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THAT IS BASED ON THINGS THAT
ARE OCCURING WITHIN THE STORM AND THEY
HAPPEN ON MUCH SMALLER SPACIAL SCALES
SO THAT IS WHAT WE'RE STILL
WORKING ON, ON FIGURING OUT
SO WE CAN REALLY HAVE
ACCURATE INFORMATION ABOUT
WHERE THE HURRICANE IS GOING
TO MAKE LANDFALL AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE WHEN IT
GETS THERE.
>>IF THOSE
MICROSCOPIC LEVEL
AND DETAILS IMPACT HURRICANES
WILL WE EVER BE ABLE TO
PREDICT HOW A HURRICANE WILL DEVELOP?
>>YEAH, FOR THE MOST PART
WE'RE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS WITH THAT
IT DEPENDS ON ON THE SCALES OF
MOTION
DETERMINE, MOST OF THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE STORM
ASSERTING THE TRACK IS ON THE
LARGER SCALES AND INTENSITY
ON A RANGE OF SCALES.
WE HAVE COMPUTER MODELS
NOW THAT ARE RUNNING AT
FINER AND FINER RESOLUTION
DOWN A KILOMETER A SQUARE.
WE CAN SORT OF REPRESENT THE
BULK PROCESSES THAT ARE
OCCURRING OVER THAT AREA
WELL ENOUGH TO GET A
REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF WHAT
THINGS ARE GOING TO DO.
IT IS NOT PERFECT BECAUSE
THOSE SCALES TEND TO BE
MORE CHAOTIC AND SO GOING TO
BE LIMIT AS TO HOW WELL YOU
CAN PREDICT IT.
WE HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ROOM TO IMPROVE THERE AS THE
MODELS GET BETTER AND THE
USE OF THE DATA FROM
SATELLITES OR FROM AIRCRAFT
OR FROM THE GROUND AND AS WE
GET THAT INTO THE MODELS
BETTER.
THE FORECAST WILL IMPROVE.
>> I HAVE TO SAY, THIS YEAR, THE PROUDEST THING
THIS YEAR WAS THAT THE FIRST
TIME, DURING AN EPIC FIELD CAMPAIGN
WE HAD THE DROPSONDE DATA AND
AS WE WERE RELEASING IT ONCE IT SPLASHED DOWN
WITHIN 15 TO 20 MINUTES WE
WERE TRANSMITTING THE DATA
INTO THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST.
>> YEAH.
THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME WE
DID THAT.
WE ARE SEEING GOOD RESULTS
AND STILL ANALYZING THAT.
>> I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION.
NOW, HOW LONG DOES THE
HURRICANE SEASON LAST?
THE HURRICANE SEASON
STARTS IN JUNE 1ST AND GOES TO THE END OF
NOVEMBER BUT AS WE'RE SEEING
THIS YEAR AND OTHER YEARS
THERE ARE TIME WHEN WITH YOU
GET STORMS FORMING EARLY IN
THE YEAR, WE HAVE SEEN
SOME IN 2005.
ONE THAT OCCURRED IN JANUARY
IT'S RARE TO HAVE THAT HAPPEN.
WE HAD SOME THAT GO, YOU KNOW,
REALLY LATE IN THE SEASON.
BUT THE CLIMATALOGICALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE BEST
IN THAT JUNE THROUGH
NOVEMBER TIME PERIOD WHEN
THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING UP AND WHEN YOU KEEP
GETTING DISTURBANCES THAT
COME OFF OF AFRICA THAT
CREATE THE RIGHT CONDITION
FOR THESE STORMS.
>> THANK YOU.
I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION ABOUT
DISASTERS.
MICHAEL, HAVE YOU SEEN ANY
IMPROVEMENTS IN DISASTER RESPONSE
FROM USING THE MAPS
MADE OF SATELLITE DATA.
I CAN THAN THE THEM I THINK
THE LARGEST IMPROVEMENT WE
HAVE IS WE ARE ABLE TO
REDUCE RISKS AND THAT IS ONE
OF THE PARTS WHERE AS SOON
AS SOMETHING CATASTROPHIC AS MARIA
HAPPENS.
YOU WANT TO HAVE ALL HANDS ON DECK
BRINGING ALL THE INFORMATION
ACROSS ALL THE
FEDERAL AGENCIES AND
REACHING OUT TO THE PARTNERS
AROUND THE WORLD BECAUSE AS
AWESOME AS ALL THE SATELLITES
THAT WE HAVE.
NASA DOES NOT MONITOR ALL
EARTH IN REAL TIME.
THAT MEANS WE HAVE
INTERNATIONAL SPACE DISASTER
WE ARE ABLE TO GET
ACCESS TO A LOT OF FREE DATA
FROM THE CANADIANS, TO GET THE SAR IMAGES
THAT MICHAEL SHOWS US.
DATA FROM THE ITALIANS
ALSO TO GET ACCESS TO THE SAR
WHILE WE KEEP DEVELOPING THE TECHNOLOGY SO
WE CAN GLOBALLY HAVE THAT
CAPCITY TO MONITOR AND
REDUCE RISK.
>> THANK YOU.
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR
MICHAEL AT MARSHALL SPACE CENTER
MICHAEL, SO HOW MANY MONTHS
DO WE EXPECT NASA TO MAKE
THAT CAN HELP WITH
DISASTER RESPONSE IN THE FUTURE?
HOW MANY ARE WE MAKING NOW?
ARE THEY GOING TO INCREASE
IN THE FUTURE?
>> WELL, YES.
WE PROCESS THE DATA EVERYDAY
WE ARE MAKING MAPS,
TYPICALLY, AS I SAID, IT
PASSES OUR SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS PASS OVER THE
AFFECTED AREA, ONCE A DAY.
WE HAVE MULTIPLE SATELLITES
SO WE CAN PRODUCE MULTIPLE
MAPS ON A DAILY BASIS.
IN FACT, WE, YOU KNOW,
DURING THIS HURRICANE
SEASON, WE WERE PROCESSING
DATA ON A DAILY BASIS.
>> I CAN FOLLOW UP ON THAT.
WE PROCESS SO MUCH DATA THAT
PRETTY MUCH, THAT WE CAN FILL THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS
IN ONE DAY.
EVERY DAY, WE HAVE BEEN
DOING DATA SINCE THE EARLY 90'S
WITH ALL THESE MEASUREMENTS
THAT IS A CAPABILTY THAT WE CAN KEEP
LOOKING AT ESPECIALLY DOING THE BLACK MARBLE
NOW YOU ARE DOING FINER RESOLUTION IMAGES ON
A DAILY BASIS.
THAT IS GOING TO REQUIRE A
NEW GENERATION OF TECHNOLOGIST
AND ENGINEERS TO HELP
WITH THIS HUGE DATS VOLUME
AND HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF SOME MUCH DATA
SO WE DON'T HAVE
FOLKS IN THE
OPERATIONAL WORLD GETTING
INUNDATED WITH DATA.
HOW DO YOU MAKE SENCE OF IT
TO ACTUALLY HELP IMPROVE POSITIONS.
>>THANK YOU.
I HAVE A QUESTION FROM PETE.
CAN WE MAKE ANY PREDICTIONS ABOUT
WHICH COASTAL AREAS ARE AT MOST RISK?
>> OH, THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.
SO I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF
CITIES FOU THAT ARE STARTING
TO LOOK AT MITIGATING FOR
FUTURE CHANGE WITHIN OUR
CLIMATE.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THINGS
BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT
HURRICANES MAKE LANDFALL IN
THE COASTAL REGION WHEN YOU
HAVE STORMS THAT WE THINK
ARE GOING TO GET STRONG
WE'RE THE WARMING CLIMATE
AND SEA LEVEL RISE AND YOU
HAVE JUST MIGRATION OF MORE
PEOPLE MOVING TO LARGE
COASTAL URBAN AREAS SO WE
HAVE ALL THREE OF THOSE
THINGS THAT COME IN TOGETHER
AND WE DON'T WANT TO SAY IT
IS A PERFECT STORM, BUT
THESE ARE THINGS THAT WE
HAVE TO BE CONSCIOUS ABOUT
AND HERE AT NASA
THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO HELP
TO PROVIDE THE DATA SO THAT
FOLKS THAT MAKE DECISIONS
ABOUT SHORING THE COASTAL
REGIONS TO MAKE SURE THAT
THAT PEOPLE STAY SAFE AND
INFRASTRUCTURE ISN'T
DESTROYED SO THAT IS OUR JOB
HERE AND WHAT WE ARE TRYING
TO DO.
>> ALL RIGHT.
I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION FROM
SUSANA.
WHY DO SOME AREAS EXPERIENCE
HUR CAPES AND OTHER AREAS
DON'T?
>> THAT IS STRAIGHT FORWARD.
A LOT OF COMES DOWN TO THE
OCEAN AND THE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES.
YOU TYPICALLY NEED A MINIMAL
OF ABOUT 26 DEGREES CELSIUS
WATER WHICH IS FOUND IN THE
TROPICS AND IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE BIG OCEAN BASINS
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC.
SO YOU TEND TO HAVE THE
ENERGY FOR THE STORMS THERE
AND THEN, CERTAIN AREAS TEND
TO HAVE FAVORABLE WIND
CONDITIONS AND OTHERS IN THE
ATLANTIC IN AM WE HAVE THESE
COMING OFF OF AFRICA
REGULARLY THEY PROVIDE THE
SEEDS FOR 60% OF THE
HURRICANES THAT WE GET IN
THE ATLANTIC T. SO IT IS
REALLY A COMBINATION OF
WHERE THE ENERGY IS COMING
FROM THEN THE NATURE OF
THOSE INITIAL DISTURBANCES
AND THE ENVIRONMENTS THAT
THEY ARE IN THAT REALLY
FOCUS THEM IN THE TROPICS
AND CERTAIN PARTS OF THE
OCEAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN
PART OF THE OCEANS BASIN
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
>> THANK YOU.
>> WELL, SO I WANT TO GO
BACK TO YOU, AMBER.
EARLIER YOU DESCRIBED
PREDICTING A HURRICANE LIKE A CORK
GOING DOWN STREAM.
WHAT HE EFFECTS THAT STREAM
LIKE THE HURRICANE TRACK ESSENTIALLY?
SURE.
THE GENERAL MOTION OF A
STORM IS DICTATED BY THE
LARGE SCALE WIND PATTERN.
THESE ARE THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND PATTERNS THAT
STEER STORM COMING THROUGH.
SO A LOT OF TIMES WE LOOK AT
500-MILLIBAR WINDS AND THAT
IS ABOUT FIVE AND A HALF
KILOMETERS UP SO THAT'S
ABOUT FIVE MILES OR SO UP TO
THE ATMOSPHERE,
ACTUALLY IT'S LESS THAN THAT WITH
MILES OF ALTITUDE SO THAT IS
WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT AND WE
HAVE GOTTEN PRETTY GOOD IN
TERMS BEING ABLE TO LOOK AT
WHERE HURRICANE IS MAKE ITS
WAY AND YOU CAN KIND OF SEE
THAT AS WELL WHEN YOU SEE
THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE LAST 25 YEARS, THE WIDTH
OF THAT CODE OF UNCERTAINTY
IS STARTING TO COME DOWN, SO
AS WE GET BETTER AP BETTER,
WE HAVE MORE RESOURCES AND,
ALSO, ASSIMILATING MORE OF THESE INSTITUTES
DATA, THAT WILL HELP US TO IMPROVE THE
ACCURACY WITH HURRICANE
FORECAST.
>>THANK YOU.
A QUESTION FOR McKALA.
WHAT GOT YOU INTERESTED IN
HURRICANE RESEARCH?
A BIT OF A CHANGE OF TOPIC.
I CAN ANSWER THAT.
I GREW UP IN PUERTO RICO
DURING A TIME
WHERE WE HAD A LOT OF VERY ACTIVE HURRICANES
IT BEGAN WITH HUGO
AND GEORGES AND ORTANS
WHEN THINGS LIKE THIS HAPPEN
AND YOU START SEEING THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF YOUR
COMMUNITY AND WIPE OUT AND
YOU REALLY WANT TO ARE REBUILD
AND LEARN HOW ENGINEER AND I
GOT HOOKED ON SCIENCE AND NASA.
GAVE ME AN IDEA
WHEN A MANGO TREE FALLS OVER YOUR GARAGE
YOU KNOW THAT THE EARTH IS CHANGING
REALLY GOES BACK TO THE
COMMUNITY AND THE IMPACTS SO
I THINK FROM EXPERIENCE I
KNOW A LOT OF FOLKS IN THE
GREAT PLAINS CAN RELATE ALSO.
WE GOT A LOT OF METEROLOGIST THAT
STARTED THEIR CAREER BECAUSE THEY SAW A
HURRICANE OR SAW A TORNADO.
A LOT OF THOSE PERSONAL EXPERIENCES RELATE TO OUR CAREERS.
>> WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF YOU?
I GREW UP IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA SO,
SEEING ANYTHING OTHER THAN FOG
WAS PRETTY EXCITING.
SO GETTING INTO COLLEGE AND
ACTUALLY STARTED OFF
ACCOUNTING MAJOR AND TOOK MY
FIRST CLASS AND ACCIDENTALLY IN METEOROLOGY
AND PROFESSOR FOR HIS VACATIONS
WAS GO OUT TO CHASE
TORNADOES.
I CAUGHT THE BUG FROM HIM
AND STUDIED TORNATIC STORMS IN CALIFORNIA
MADE MY WAY EAST AND GOT CLOSER AND CLOSER
TO HURRICANES THAT
BECAME AN INTEREST AS WELL.
>> YEAH.
I WOULD SAY FOR ME,
WE STILL HAVE AT OUR HOUSE UP AT
OUR LAKE HOUSE AT THE ADIRONDACKS
I CALL IT MY WEATHER-WATCHING CHAIR.
THE CHAIR IS OLDER THAN I AM.
IT SAT IN THE FRONT ROOM AND
MY GRANDMOTHER INSISTED THAT
MY GRANDFATHER PUT IN THESE REALLY
BIG PICTURE WINDOWS WITH NO
PAINS AND INSISTED ON IT.
THEY COME TO A CORNER IN THE LIVING ROOM
AND LETS YOU LOOK DOWN THE
LAKE AND SO I REMEMBER
GROWING UP AS A LITTLE GIRL
AND I COULD HEAR, HEAR
THUNDER WHEN THINNER ROARED,
GO INDOORS.
GET OUT OF THE LAKE.
I WOULD GO AND SIT IN THE
WEATHER WATCHING CHAIR AND
WATCH THE STORMS ROLL IN
ACROSS THE LAKE.
AND I WAS HOOKED FROM LIKE 3 YEARS OLD.
>> WHAT ABOUT YOU, MICHAEL?
>> SURE.
I GOT HOOKED ON METEOROLOGY
I FIRST, I WAS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES THEN
I WENT DOWN TO FLORIDA AT
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY
I WAS STUDYING SATELLITE METEOROLOGY
HURRICANE FREDERICK CAME VERY CLOSE BY
THEN, YEARS LATER, THEN, I
WENT UP TO THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN THAT IS WHEN I
REALLY GOT INTO THE SATELLITE
METEOROLOGY THEN I GOT
HOOKED ON USING SATELLITE
DATA AND TO STUDY STORMS.
THE SEVERE STORMS LIKE
TORNADOANCE AND HURRICANES.
>> THANK YOU.
>> SO THAT IS ALL WE HAVE
TIME FOR TODAY.
THANK YOU AGAIN SO MUCH FOR
JOINING US AND ASKING GREAT
QUESTIONS ABOUT HURRICANES
AND DISASTER RESPONSE.
IF YOU WANT MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT NASA'S HURRICANE RESEARCH,
PLEASE GO TO:
IF YOU WANT MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT DISASTER PROGRAM:
FOR OUR INFORMATION ON THE
LATEST PRECIPITATION SATELLITE:
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US
SEE YOU AGAIN SOON.