We’re already feeling the effects of climate change.
Intense heat waves, longer fire seasons, droughts and floods –
the impacts of a warmer planet are all around us. And as global
global temperatures continue to rise, we’ll experience even more changes to our planet.
New NASA research suggests that, with high greenhouse gas emissions,
we’ll see declines in global crop yields for maize, corn,
as early as 2030.
Shifting rainfall patterns, higher temperatures, and increased atmospheric carbon levels
levels are likely to affect where, and how much of, staple crops like corn,
soybeans, wheat, and rice can be grown.
Using multiple highly accurate supercomputer models, researchers projected future global conditions based on
greenhouse gas emissions. They ran those results through models that simulate how crops
respond to changes in things like rainfall, temperatures, and atmospheric carbon dioxide.
By using multiple computer models, the teams could compare
results and be more confident in what they learned.
Overall, corn and wheat showed the clearest results.
By 2069-2099, global corn crop yields could decrease 24%.
Corn is grown around the world, with large quantities grown in countries close to the equator.
Rising temperatures in this region will put stress on those plants,
leading to lower crop yields.
Wheat, on the other hand, grows mostly in more temperate regions, like the Northern U.S and Canada,
North China Plains, Central Asia, Southern Australia, Europe, and Russia.
Warmer global temperatures and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide
could increase wheat crop yields up to 17%.
However, these increases will likely level off by 2050 or so.
Changes to our global agriculture are likely to happen relatively soon,
even in scenarios where we significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions.
The more we understand about how our global food systems
will change in a warmer climate, the better prepared we can be.
NASA