Space Weather Forecasting: Quiet Times Ahead

  • Released Tuesday, August 16, 2005
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SOHO/MDI magnetograms combined with the Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) model can be used to generate a model of magnetic field lines in the lower part of the solar corona. When these models are compared to the loops visible in TRACE imagery, a good match (as in this case) indicates that the region will not generate flare events over the next few days.

This movie zooms in to the solar surface then fades to a time varying magnetogram. The PFSS model is overlaid on the source magnetic field, then compared to the TRACE loops. Following the region for several days, we see no flare events.

A full-disk view of the Sun.

A full-disk view of the Sun.

A magnetogram closeup view of an active region. White indicates north magnetic polarity, black is south.

A magnetogram closeup view of an active region. White indicates north magnetic polarity, black is south.

Overlay of the PFSS model on the active region.

Overlay of the PFSS model on the active region.

In this case, we see the PFSS model matches the TRACE coronal loops very well.

In this case, we see the PFSS model matches the TRACE coronal loops very well.

The region continues to show changes...

The region continues to show changes...

but over two days later, no flares have occurred.

but over two days later, no flares have occurred.

For More Information

See http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/clear_weather_feature.html

Credits

Please give credit for this item to:
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

This page was originally published on Tuesday, August 16, 2005.
This page was last updated on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 1:56 PM EDT.

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